Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
