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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However this year's race is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans rising together. In an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still