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It was 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery berated him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the team's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

It remains a particularly tough query to address. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.

Per the data, in only two games has the team posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.

His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• The winger might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a vital England player.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.